Analysis of 1,000 US consumers reveals how youthful “doom spending” and election concerns could help or hurt an optimistic holiday season.
BOSTON, Mass. October 24, 2024 – Simon-Kucher, the leading global growth consultancy, today published its sixth annual Holiday Shopping Report, revealing:
- Consumer holiday spending is expected to be 8.4 percent higher than it was in 2023
- 48 percent of Americans say the outcome of the US presidential election will affect their holiday spending
- Gen Z and millennial consumers may give retail sales a boost by “doom spending”
The 2024 Holiday Shopping Report, based on insights from 1,000 US consumers, provides crucial visibility into shifting consumer attitudes and behaviors during both a critical retail season and a year marked by economic change.
“As we head into the holiday shopping season, the stakes couldn’t be higher for retailers, especially as many rely on Q4 results to make or break the year. Election anxieties coupled with inflation and economic uncertainty make this year even more complex,” said Shikha Jain, Partner & Head of Consumer for North America, Simon-Kucher. “However, despite volatile consumer spending patterns, the desire to spend persists, particularly among younger generations who seem to be embracing ‘doom spending’ as a form of escapism and instant gratification. Retailers can harness this energy, but they must be prepared for the unpredictability this season brings.”
Key findings:
- Consumers plan to spend $1,020 per household on holiday expenses, up 8.4 percent over 2023. Household income plays a large role in expected spend as higher-income households (>$75,000 annually) will spend 4.25x more than lower-income households (<$75,000 annually), indicating a non-linear correlation.
- Half of Americans expect the outcome of the US presidential election will affect their holiday spending. This sentiment is more common among Gen Z and Millennials than Gen X and Baby Boomers, Americans with a child or children, and those who feel more strongly impacted by inflation and recession.
- A dramatic 21 percent year-over-year increase in planned holiday spending by Gen Z illustrates “doom spending,” or the trend of consumers spending frivolously or with money they don’t have for short-term gratification. Millennials also plan to spend much more on holiday expenses in 2024 than last year (+15 percent), compared to Gen X (+5 percent) and Baby Boomers (+6 percent).
- Black Friday has peaked. For the first time in years, Black Friday participation is expected to shrink in 2024 by 6 percent. And although consumers still believe Black Friday to be the day for the biggest deals of the holiday season, consumers are spreading their spending much more evenly spread throughout deal days across the year.
Simon-Kucher’s sixth annual Holiday Shopping Report provides a comprehensive analysis of 2024 holiday retail market dynamics, based on insights from 1,000 US consumers that are representative of the US demographics. It explores key trends like budgeting, preferred gift categories, purchase timing, and the growing influence of digital platforms. By comparing consumer expectations with industry projections, the study identifies areas of alignment and misalignment, offering valuable insights for retailers and business leaders to shape their strategies for the 2024 holiday season and beyond.
About Simon-Kucher
Simon-Kucher is a global consultancy with more than 2,000 employees in 30 countries. Our sole focus is on unlocking better growth that drives measurable revenue and profit for our clients. We achieve this by optimizing every lever of their commercial strategy – product, price, innovation, marketing, and sales – based on deep insights into what customers want and value. With nearly 40 years of experience in monetization topics of all kinds, we are regarded as the world’s leading pricing and growth specialist.
For further information, please contact:
Niki Irby
niki.irby@simon-kucher.com
