The United States is facing a twin crisis—one in education and the other in its labor market. The troubling decline in math proficiency among students raises a sobering question: Is this academic failure sowing the seeds of an engineer shortage so acute that it will force the country to expand its reliance on skilled immigrants through programs like the H-1B visa? Well, without substantial reforms, America risks undermining its economic resilience and technological supremacy.
The Mathematics Deficit
The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) report for 2023 laid bare a grim reality: math scores for 13-year-olds fell by nine points compared to 2020, the sharpest drop recorded since federal tracking began in 1973. A mere 26% of eighth graders reached proficiency or higher in math.
The disruption caused by pandemic-related school closures played a significant role in this decline. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that three out of five teachers noted considerable setbacks in students’ math comprehension during remote learning. Even as schools reopened, these learning deficits have persisted, raising concerns about the long-term career prospects of a generation of students.
Engineering at a Crossroads
While math classrooms struggle, the engineering sector faces a looming shortfall. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. engineering workforce stood at 1.6 million in 2022. However, projections from the National Science Board suggest the nation will need an additional one million STEM professionals by 2030 to remain competitive.
Mathematics underpins engineering disciplines ranging from aerospace to software development. Yet, the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) notes that 40% of U.S. engineering students either switch majors or drop out by their third year, often citing difficulties with math-heavy courses as the primary reason. Without foundational math skills, the ambition to fill engineering seats may remain an aspiration rather than a reality.
A Shrinking Pipeline
In 2021, the U.S. graduated around 200,000 engineers—a figure dwarfed by China’s 1.4 million and India’s 900,000, according to UNESCO. The disparity is not merely quantitative; it is also qualitative. Reports from the Brookings Institution and McKinsey & Company emphasize that many U.S. graduates lack the advanced mathematical proficiency required for cutting-edge roles in artificial intelligence, semiconductor production, and defense technologies.
The inequality in math education exacerbates this problem. Schools in low-income districts, often underfunded and understaffed, have experienced the steepest declines in math scores. Brookings data shows that students in the lowest income quartile saw an average 12-point drop, compared to a five-point drop among their wealthier peers. This disparity not only narrows the STEM talent pipeline but also restricts economic mobility for students from marginalized communities.
The Immigration Question
As America’s homegrown talent pool struggles to keep pace with demand, the country’s dependence on foreign-born engineers is set to grow. The H-1B visa program, which allows U.S. companies to hire highly skilled foreign workers, is already a critical mechanism for filling STEM roles. According to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), over 70% of H-1B visas in recent years have gone to Indian nationals, many of whom work in engineering and technology sectors.
However, the program is capped at 85,000 new visas per year—a number that falls drastically short of industry needs, according to USCIS reports. In 2024, the H-1B visa lottery saw over 700,000 applications, highlighting data from official USCIS filings that underscore the intense demand for skilled foreign workers.
Without significant improvements in math education, the U.S. may have no choice but to expand its H-1B visa program to compensate for the shortfall of domestic engineers. While this could bolster innovation in the short term, it also raises concerns about brain drain in the countries supplying this talent and about America’s long-term ability to cultivate its own skilled workforce.
Lessons from Global Competitors
China and India continue to invest heavily in STEM education, producing a steady stream of graduates capable of competing on the world stage. Their policies emphasize early math intervention, advanced STEM curricula, and partnerships with industry to ensure job readiness.
If the U.S. does not take similar steps to address its educational shortcomings, it risks ceding its technological leadership. A report from McKinsey & Company warns that the failure of the US to produce enough engineering talent could weaken its defense capabilities and leave critical industries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
Reversing the Decline in Math Performance
This will require a coordinated effort. Investments in early math intervention, tutoring programs, and teacher training are essential. Federal and state governments must prioritize STEM initiatives and provide resources to make engineering careers more attractive and accessible.
The National Math and Science Initiative (NMSI) offers a blueprint for success, having expanded access to Advanced Placement (AP) STEM courses in underserved schools. Similarly, private sector partnerships can play a pivotal role by funding scholarships, mentorship programs, and internships.
Moreover, the US must reassess its skilled immigration policies. While the H-1B program has proven invaluable, the current cap may need to be expanded to ensure that critical roles in AI, clean energy, and infrastructure are filled. Policymakers must strike a balance between nurturing domestic talent and leveraging global expertise.
Stakes for the Future
The decline in math proficiency is not just an educational concern—it is a strategic vulnerability. Poor math performance today could lead to an engineering shortfall that hampers innovation, weakens national defense, and diminishes economic resilience. America has long been a beacon of innovation, driven by its capacity to adapt and excel. Yet, sustaining that legacy requires urgent action. If the nation continues to neglect math education, it will not only need more H-1B visas—it will need a new strategy to rebuild its foundations in math, science, and engineering.
